There are many conceivable scenarios regarding the trend of GDP in 2023 after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine which have literally upset the economic structure of the internal states of Europe.
On the one hand we have pressure from Russia which cuts off gas supplies to Europe without which some countries were forced to implement emergency measures, on the other hand there is inflation which affects the incomes above all of the less well-off.
All in all, Bankitalia estimates growth in Italian GDP of +0.6%, which wouldn’t even be that bad given the problems that the peninsula is facing today.
As for the countries beyond the Alps, the IMF estimates a contraction of -0.3% on Germany’s GDP, while France’s GDP will grow by +2.5%, which is therefore able to do better than its main competitors in Europe.
Spain’s GDP, on the other hand, will undergo a meager increase of +1.2%, while further north in the United Kingdom, the IMF estimates a contraction of the economy with British GDP reaching only +0.3%.
In short, the European economy is starting to falter according to the data published by public institutions and rating agencies.
On the other side of the continent we have the emerging economies of China, India, Brazil which risk undermining the economic hegemony that the West has exercised in the world for years.
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In 2019 Italy was in eighth place for GDP on the international scene, but to date in 2023 it has certainly lost some positions, and the forecasts up to 2030 are far from rosy, with the economic growth of Brazil and Korea South.
As for the United States, a country that for a century was the point of reference for Western democracies, as well as being the country with the highest GDP in the world, in a few years could give way to Xi Jinping’s China, whose GDP is preparing to surpass that of the United States whose forecasts are estimated at +6% despite the economic crisis affecting countries throughout the world.
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